It’s that time of year…
Notes:
1. There are over 100 ways to skin a cat. At times, I may sound like I’m saying how one team can’t possibly win; all I’m really saying is that given the lineup and categories considered, it’s going to be an uphill battle. I will favor hitting in most cases as pitching is an iffy proposition at best. To be even more specific: all things being equal, a typical pitcher or most of everyone else who isn’t a true ace is only as good as the defense playing behind him. It’s precisely why we often have to overpay for the Stephen Strasburgs, Clayton Kershaws and Justin Verlanders of the world, hoping that they’re gonna have a bunch of astounding seasons before that rubber arm drops off.
And yet…one of the best things about baseball is that it always has a truckload of talent and a sound pipeline to funnel the kids through so there’s always going to be at least a dozen guys who can—and often do—bridge the gap.
2. I probably won’t be talking about closers that much since I’m a stubborn oaf and SV is just one needlessly overrated category.
3. WAR means Wins Above Replacement, an attempt to capture player contributions (not necessarily actual talent) in one handy number. It’s like a much smarter, more well-rounded and more well-liked cousin of pro basketball’s dastardly, clumsy and misleading PER and the plus/minus. The WAR scale (c/o Fangraphs) is interpreted as follows:
8+ – MVP Quality
5+ – All-Star Quality
2+ – Starter
0-2 – Reserve
< 0 – Replacement-Level
WAR values have been included for the K10 players (as per commish @iambubuy’s request). The first number is for 2012 and the second one, a projection for the upcoming season. There are several outfits that compute for and project WAR (and they all do so slightly differently) but for our purposes, we will use ZiPS c/o the Baseball Think Factory and Fangraphs.
IMPORTANT! A good chunk of WAR accounts for defense and thus, it will not be 100 percent applicable fantasy-wise (to put a number on it, this might be closer to 60 percent as defensive metrics vary significantly). A lot of great offensive players who suck on defense take a hit and a handful of elite defenders grade out higher than they would fantasy-wise (the top ten catchers as a group, for example).
By extension, you can expect two hitters with similar raw numbers to score rather differently if batter A just happens to be a Gold Glove-caliber defender and batter B’s just a placeholder.
Furthermore, as WAR is adjusted for position, playing certain spots across the defensive spectrum give certain players more intrinsic value if said position is more difficult to play defensively e.g. CF is tougher than either corner outfield spot (RF, LF); playing either middle infield spot (SS, 2B) is harder than spotting the corners (1B, 3B).
Again, at the risk of sounding redundant: a top 25 bat who can make all the plays at SS will have a slightly inflated WAR value and make him fairly comparable to a top 10 bat playing 1B. In fact, there’s a fairly decent chance that there wouldn’t be too much of a difference (within 1.0) as the defensive metrics should cover enough of the slight discrepancy they may have offensively.
As an example, consider Rockies SS Troy Tulowitzki and Reds 1B Joey Votto who are both great hitters and great defenders at their positions. This year, ZiPS projects them to score within three tenths off each other (5.3 to 5.6, respectively). Note that going back to 2010 and 2011, when both were for most part healthy and got enough plate appearances, they were practically in the same neighborhood.
Votto (6.8/6.4) came out ahead of Tulo (5.9/5.7) primarily because the former had over 200 more plate appearances and 46 more games played for the two years combined. (One could even argue that Tulo would’ve gone 6.2/6.0 had he avoided sick bay.)
In essence, that one round/7-dollar difference in fantasy baseball rankings matters a lot less with respect to WAR. But I guess we already know that it’s a wash since both are quite good already; health permitting, you are getting All-Star production either way.
All that being said, this neat little stat should give us a gauge especially when it comes to trade values, identifying sleeper potential on the wire and ultimately, keeping players as the main thing WAR does is give a striking picture of position depth i.e. how a player’s contributions compare to that of the hypothetical “average” player and how much of a difference this makes for his team.
4. Unless a particular source is cited, all the (other) numbers/projections are mine and represent “ballpark figures” rather than stats derived from esoteric sabermetric algorithms and rigorous (over)analysis. In cases where I quote someone else, I’m doing so because a) I’m on the fence with respect to a guy numbers-wise and b) I want to highlight someone’s rather optimistic projections as I prefer to go for the “floor”.
5. Illegitimi non carborundum.
6. The pop culture references/inside jokes were made all in fun. This is a fun game and if it has taught me anything at all, it’s that life ought to be handled the same way. There’s about as much romance in baseball as there is heartbreak and there will be a lot of times in life that we’re bound to encounter both so…LAUGH IT OFF.
7. This will be the last time I’ll be doing this. It takes some pains to put these things together and in the future, I doubt that I’ll be able to find enough free time to let things simmer. That said, here goes…
WEST
Moose Knuckle Balls/@jawnboy
KEEPERS
1. (10) Adam Jones (Bal – CF) – 4.6/3.6
2. (15) Cole Hamels (Phi – SP) – 4.5/4.4
3. (34) R.A. Dickey (Tor – SP) – 4.6/2.5
4. (39) Jimmy Rollins (Phi – SS) – 4.9/3.3
5. (58) Kris Medlen (Atl – SP,RP) – 3.9/3.1
6. (63) Ryan Howard (Phi – 1B) – -1.0/0.9
7. (82) Miguel Montero (Ari – C) – 5.0/3.9
8. (87) Dan Uggla (Atl – 2B) – 3.5/2.2
9. (106) Jim Johnson (Bal – RP) – 1.4/0.3
10. (111) Norichika Aoki (Mil – LF,CF,RF) – 2.9/2.2
This team is like an old vacuum…it does NOT suck. Regardless of all the angst-ridden Philly baggage and the rope-a-dope, stylized FPJ-ing team manager Maong tries to sell, the Iron Lion Zions will be champing at the bit all season long. Jones was a key acquisition as 90 R/30 HR/90 RBI seasons look to be more the rule rather than the exception.
Kim K is blooming alright…
We may all have doubts about how the Regression Witch would come back to send R.A. Dickey (acquired via trade with the Consiggys for Ian Kinsler) back to earth but for all the things he’s been through in his 40-some years, baseball would be nothing more than a cakewalk.
Hamels will be Hamels, health permitting and JRoll will be Jroll, albeit one much closer to taking a talking head gig than the distance between 1st base and home plate. And what of Ryan Howard, whom the jawn’s loves like an adopted son? For what it’s worth, it seems like that the Manongs’ loyalty will finally be rewarded, as long as one sets the bar low enough (.240/28 HR/82 RBI). Aoki needs no introduction to the hard-core crowd but while most see last year as a fluke, Bloomberg’s oversold on a trademark season from the former Yakult Swallow (97 R/ 29 SB).
And there’s definitely nothing middling about Medlen who made Cliff Lee expendable and who could very well be this year’s top pitching breakout star.
FILLERS. Carlos Beltran (StL – CF,RF); Mike Moustakas (KC – 3B); Ichiro Suzuki (NYY – LF,CF,RF); Jayson Werth (Was – CF,RF); John Axford (Mil – RP); Daniel Murphy (NYM – 1B,2B); Kyle Seager (Sea – 2B,3B); Lorenzo Cain (KC – CF,RF); Derek Holland (Tex – SP); Trevor Cahill (Ari – SP); Cody Ross (Ari – LF,RF); Wei-Yin Chen (Bal – SP); Domonic Brown (Phi – LF, RF)
The upside of this motley crew is matched only by the questions they will face to open the year. Beltran went buckwild like 2012 was The End (32 HR, 180 R+RBI) and there may be hell to pay for such indiscretions (HR down to the low 20s, if that + BA dip); being in a potent lineup helps so at the very least, there will be enough opportunities to plate a few runs. Quite a few have spoken of a Moustakas breakout in 2013 and a modest one (25 HR/75 RBI) may well be in reach considering how badly he got dragged across the grain towards the end of last season. Ageless wonder Ichiro Suzuki may not kick it like he used but the Yanks need him early and often so as long as he stays healthy, .290/85 R/30 SB shouldn’t too much to ask.
The Jawns also acquired Dom Brown via trade with the Pogi Rockers for a rule 5 pick. Brown’s been kicking it all spring so hopes are sky-high for the one-time Philly prospect. He’s still more toolsy than even Maynard James Keenan, so going 20/20 sounds sweeter than the new Timberlake joint.
The Jabronis sure didn’t break the bank as they filled out the back end of their rotation with proletariat pitching. Holland, Cahill and Chen are decent spot-starters in a sea of arms.
If there’s anyone who’s all over the map projections-wise, it’s ex-Philly Jayson Werth. The optimists (Bill James, Bloomberg etc.) have him as a stout OF2 (80 R/20 HR/80 RBI) while the realists view him as nothing more than waiver wire fodder (ESPN: 64 R/14 HR/50 RBI). While the Nats’ lineup card doesn’t read like Murderers’ Row, they’ve got more offense than most in the watered down NL to make Werth’s fantasy game redemption attainable.
FARM. The Castro deal that brought in first baseman Jonathan Singleton and right-hander Matt Harvey helped revitalize what had been an otherwise barren system. We can go back and forth with Harvey’s pedigree (true ace vs. over-performing #3) but despite last year’s charitable BABIP, it can’t be denied that he belongs in the bigs (our proj for ’13: 3.60 ERA/170 IP/160 K) . He should suit up for the Maongs when summer rolls around, if not a month or so earlier. Meanwhile, the Astros’ Singleton, a heavy-hitting first baseman more than capable of smoking balls out of the park, won’t be too far behind once he gets back from serving his suspension for getting higher than the Empire State.
Young guns Adalberto Mondesi and Jorge Bonifacio are all shacked up with tools but in the meantime they’re going to need all the Old Bay, laurel leaves, paprika, turmeric and oregano that they can get in the minors. Ditto for Philly Roman Quinn who’s probably so damn tired of the Billy Hamilton comparisons already.
Sir Chiefs/@kville_rocks
KEEPERS
1. (6) Stephen Strasburg (Was – SP) – 4.3/4.4
2. (19) Giancarlo Stanton (Mia – RF) – 5.8/6.4
3. (30) Hanley Ramirez (LAD – 3B,SS) – 3.0/3.0
4. (43) Starlin Castro (ChC – SS) – 3.3/3.9
5. (54) Paul Goldschmidt (Ari – 1B) – 3.7/2.5
6. (67) Adam Wainwright (StL – SP) – 4.4/4.2
7. (78) Jason Kipnis (Cle – 2B) – 3.1/2.6
8. (91) Desmond Jennings (TB – LF,CF) – 3.5/3.1
9. (102) Carlos Santana (Cle – C,1B) – 3.4/4.4
10. (115) Tim Lincecum (SF – SP) – 1.5/3.6
A well-written coming of age story cuts both ways as awe-inspiring and heartwarming. The Pogi Rockers took their sweet time building up and build well they did. They had their fair share of misses but their makes are well worth their weight in fantasy gold. Things are sure looking up with Stanton growing into the role of standard bearer and Next Great Slugger (Bloomberg: 101 R/44 HR/118 RBI). Kipnis and Santana are two Cleveland guys whose numbers are poised for a hike with all the help they will be getting from a rejuvenated Indians lineup. With an improved approach at the plate, Goldschmidt rocked hard last year and even as the Goldy market has been maddeningly bullish this pre-season, no one’s gouging their eyes out in despair in case he doesn’t better his 25 HR/90 RBI floor.
What they couldn’t grow on the farm, they snagged via trade. The Strasburg Plunder of 2012 addressed a vital area of need with Lincecum’s star fading (sinking?) in the bay. With the Strasburger fully reloaded (he’s so thuggish/Cy Youngish) and ably backed by Adam Wainwright, the duo will make a run for 400 IP/400 K this year even if prudence dictates otherwise. More importantly, Starlin Castro’s youthful effervescence (CBS: 76 R/80 RBI/27 SB) makes up for the maddening swoons of the often disinterested/disgruntled and injured Hanley Ramirez (thumb).
FILLERS. Mike Napoli (Bos – C,1B); Max Scherzer (Det – SP); Dan Haren (Was – SP); Pedro Alvarez (Pit – 3B); Emilio Bonifacio (Tor – 2B,CF); Addison Reed (CWS – RP); Steve Cishek (Mia – RP); J.J. Hardy (Bal – SS); Tommy Hanson (LAA – SP); Jose Veras (Hou – RP); Matt Carpenter (StL – 1B,3B,RF); Jaime Garcia (StL- SP ); Brandon Moss (1B,LF,RF)
Okay, so they kinda blew it here . This was an auto-drafted set that relied on a pre-ranked list so blame Y! for plucking out a catcher with bad hips as its first pick. Scherzer is a former Pogi prospect and forever a fantasy flame in @kville_rocks’ heart. He won’t always keep the sheets tidy (Scherzer not @kville_rocks) but the Ks are definitely going to be there. The biggest knock on the Tommy Hanson career arc is that he probably peaked too soon. Springtime music festivals aside, no one has been rocked as hard as Hanson in the Cactus League and that sure doesn’t bode well going into April. While the hype is understated (for now) for super-utility man Matt Carpenter, the world is his oyster once he clinches the second base job for the Cards (Update: with Freese out to open the year, it appears that he’s going to take over 3B in the interim).
FARM. Despite the ascension of all their fresh-faced farm graduates, the progressive SanFo-based outfit still has youth to burn and a handful will become key contributors in the next couple of years. Cards flamethrower Shelby Miller could pitch in as early as this spring as their 5th starter (or not). For the guys who need more cups of coffee, Astros second baseman Delino DeShields Jr. and Giants right-hander Kyle Crick lead the charge in what could be another head-turning prospect cycle for the K-Crew. If nothing else, DeShields can flat out fly around the basepaths and become a much improved version of the Rockies’ Eric Young Jr. There’s also been a lot of chatter about how he’d probably be Billy Hamilton in a parallel universe where the top Cincy prospect pursued other interests. On the other hand, Crick is as hard-throwing as they come but until he learns to tame his dragon, that could spell the difference between going 2nd and 5th in the rotation. And oh yeah, Puig…that guy’s pretty good. He’s starting the year in Double-A to keep his arbitration clock in check but you can bet that he’ll be in the bigs soon enough.
Angry (Red) Birds/@billybaggins
KEEPERS
1. (3) Carlos Gonzalez (Col – LF) – 2.7/4.9
2. (22) Edwin Encarnacion (Tor – 1B) – 4.4/2.8
3. (27) Jay Bruce (Cin – RF) – 2.4/3.6
4. (46) Matt Holliday (StL – LF) – 5.1/3.5
5. (51) Chris Sale (CWS – SP) – 4.9/3.6
6. (70) Chase Headley (SD – 3B) – 7.5/3.9
7. (75) Pablo Sandoval (SF – 3B) – 2.8/3.4
8. (94) Freddie Freeman (Atl – 1B) – 2.0/3.0
9. (99) Jon Lester (Bos – SP) – 3.3/3.0
10. (118) Jeremy Hellickson (TB – SP) – 1.0/1.6
If the ultra-competitive West division was the American League East, then the Bagginses would definitely be the Orioles. They get little press and even less respect despite a burgeoning young lineup that’s gunning for a turnaround after last year’s 10th place finish. Bannered by 2008 draftee Carlos Gonzalez and last season’s breakout supernova Chase Headley (out 4 to 6 weeks with a broken thumb), the Birds will hit and hack away in their bid to finally make postseason play. Sale, Lester and Hellickson form a veritable triumvirate of low investment mound aces. While there remains a glaring need for stability in the middle infield, the team should stay competitive on the backs of old reliables Jay Bruce and Matt Holliday.
FILLERS. Yadier Molina (StL – C); Melky Cabrera (Tor – LF,RF); Michael Young (Phi – 1B,2B,3B); Andrelton Simmons (Atl – SS); Marco Scutaro (SF – 2B,3B,SS); Jonathan Broxton (Cin – RP); Kenley Jansen (LAD – RP); Grant Balfour (Oak – RP); Tim Hudson (Atl – SP); Jon Jay (StL – CF); Johan Santana (NYM – SP); Matt Harrison (Tex – SP); Vinnie Pestano (Cle – RP)
Yadier Molina was the right player for the right price as the Birds tagged quality production at a key position. The past winter saw Michael Young pack his bags and move from one bandbox to another. Most would insist that it’s high time he fell off the map for good but decent numbers aren’t far-fetched so long as expectations are kept in check (Bloomberg: 70 R/11 HR/66 RBI).
Hudson does little out of the ordinary but he’s now less of an injury risk and has a good shot to go over 140 innings. On the other hand, Santana is slated to miss the first six weeks with a persistently weak shoulder so that puts a lot of things in doubt going forward.
Quite possibly the buzziest name going into camp, Andrelton Simmons will try to make hay as the Braves’ new leadoff hitter. For what it’s worth, the sneaky Altuve comparison somehow fits.
FARM. KC’s Bubba Starling and Miami’s Christian Yelich and Jose Fernandez form the youngish three-headed dynamo that drives the San Mateo-based system. Starling, still with new-car prospect shine, dogged it in his first year as he struck out in a full third of his at-bats. Yelich and Fernandez both exhibited advanced skill-sets for their age and are getting extended looks in camp. They will spend most of the year in Double A until the casual September call-up.
Among the recent draftees, the Dodgers’ Zach Lee and the Royals’ Kyle Zimmer portend to rocket through the minors and like the more seasoned DBack Tyler Skaggs, could help out in rotation duties sooner than expected.
Deschanel Sauce/@jayredux
KEEPERS
1. (12) Ryan Braun (Mil – LF) – 7.9/5.9
2. (13) Joey Votto (Cin – 1B) – 5.9/5.6
3. (36) Troy Tulowitzki (Col – SS) – 1.5/5.3
4. (37) Evan Longoria (TB – 3B) – 2.4/4.8
5. (60) Buster Posey (SF – C,1B) – 8/6.2
6. (61) Josh Hamilton (LAA – LF,CF) – 4.4/3.2
7. (84) Jason Heyward (Atl – RF) – 6.6/4.3
8. (85) Cliff Lee (Phi – SP) – 4.9/5.7
9. (108) Allen Craig (StL – 1B,LF,RF) – 3.1/1.9
10. (109) Roy Halladay (Phi – SP) – 2.5/4.5
There was little reason for this club to win the 2012 chip as Votto, Longoria and Tulo combined to miss 254(!) games between them. On top of that, Halladay’s signature dominance went on sabbatical all year, his clockwork approach hindered by nagging shoulder and back problems. Thankfully, a bounceback campaign from the once-mighty prospect Heyward and beastly performances from Braun and eventual NL MVP Posey helped right the ship. Add that to a little luck (timely wire pickups of Willingham and Craig) and a last-ditch grab of a playoff bye and things somehow fell neatly into place.
All told, the Zooeys will definitely miss the steady Adam Jones whom they swapped in exchange for another loaded Philly arm in Cliff Lee. Yet even with the sure-handed Lee and legendary Halladay, their pitching remains waif-thin amid concerns about the latter’s continuing decline in spring league ball. Counting this year, the core group of great-but-brittle bats and senior circuit pitchers have only two more solid contending years in them as things undoubtedly get tougher with the league’s new playoff format.
FILLERS. Ike Davis (NYM – 1B); Jason Motte (StL – RP); Neil Walker (Pit – 2B); Dayan Viciedo (CWS – LF); Marco Estrada (Mil – SP,RP); Michael Morse (Sea – LF,RF); Glen Perkins (Min – RP); Angel Pagan (SF – CF); Alexi Ogando (Tex – RP); Jason Kubel (Ari – LF); Cameron Maybin (SD – CF); Bobby Parnell (NYM – RP); Erasmo Ramirez (Sea – SP)
The DC-area collective are certainly smitten by the Mets’ “Magic” Ike Davis and it cost them a Rule 5 pick plus their last round pick to get him. When pressed for details, all the team said via text message was, “30 homers are 30 homers so…”
Minus a dozen stolen bases, Walker will try to do his best Ben Zobrist impression at second. After getting his feet wet in his first full major league season, former Sauce farmhand Dayan Viciedo may be ready to take the next step in his evolution. A renewed approach to his mechanics could go a long way in channeling the future 35 HR/100 RBI beast within. There are no questions about what Morse and Kubel bring to the table offensively (25 HR/85 RBI apiece); it’s their propensity for nagging injuries that often mean protracted stints on the DL that complicates things.
Marco Estrada had a masterful second half and that’s why he’s one of the worst-kept fantasy sleepers. Ranger Alexi Ogando’s outings have been spotty all spring but it’s going to come down to health concerns (fingers x-ed) rather than the lack of stuff that could force Ron Washington to move him back to the pen. The Saucers sure got an earful for burning a waiver pick on the M’s Erasmo Ramirez but chalk it up to sabermetric-inspired aggressiveness and Rasmo’s sterling spring for their insistence on giving the kid a chance out of the gate (Update: Ramirez will be starting the year in Triple-A…Silver lining: the M’s don’t seem inclined to turn him into a reliever in the long run).
FARM. The club’s long laundry list of failed prospects rivals only Olivia Wilde’s movie career in terms of big-time box office bombs. Had the Zooeys not drafted promising shortstops Xander Bogaerts and Francisco Lindor, they would likely still be agonizing over bloated hype-machine creations like the toolsy Fernando Martinez and left-hander Christian Friedrich. Of their 2013 draftees, Adam Eaton, Oswaldo Arcia, Robert Stephenson and Aaron Sanchez represent the Zooeys’ pet gentrification project after long years of urban decay. Eaton, a scrappy OBP whiz and the DBacks’ starting CF and leadoff hitter, will miss two months with a sprained ulnar collateral ligament (elbow). Arcia, a prototypical masher, will head up to Triple A before eventually boosting the Twinkie batting order later in the year. Stephenson and Sanchez are textbook “live” arms for the future and risk-reward types of the highest order.
CENTRAL
CharlieHustle/@agentjackbauer
KEEPERS
1. (11) Miguel Cabrera (Det – 3B) – 7.1/6.5
2. (14) Matt Kemp (LAD – CF) – 3.5/4.7
3. (35) Jose Bautista (Tor – RF) – 3.2/4.6
4. (38) David Wright (NYM – 3B) – 7.8/3.8
5. (59) Dustin Pedroia (Bos – 2B) – 4.5/5.2
6. (62) Curtis Granderson (NYY – CF) – 2.6/3.6
7. (83) Bryce Harper (Was – LF,CF,RF) – 4.9/4.7
8. (86) Yu Darvish (Tex – SP) – 5.1/4.5
9. (107) Craig Kimbrel (Atl – RP) – 3.6/2.0
10. (110) Martin Prado (Ari – 2B,3B,SS,LF) – 5.9/3.8
The Charlies won the 2011 Cup in record fashion, nailing down 175 victories (99 games over .500) off the otherworldly numbers of Kemp, Bautista, Cabrera and Granderson. They tried their darndest to pull off a resounding encore, but injuries to Bautista and Kemp and the dearth of starting pitching limited the #3-seeded club to a playoff cameo in 2012.
While they’re already slated to lose Granderson for a month, the year ahead still kicks off with promise as both Bautista (Bloomberg: 101/40/108) and Kemp (Bloomberg: 97/34/103) are back in service. Expect Cabrera to get his usual even as David Wright comes off as questionable (poor lineup and health concerns). Bryce Harper may not bust out off the seams as most expect (32 HR/104 RBI is kinda pushing it, bro) but we tend to forget that he doesn’t even turn 21 until October. Once homegrown arm Yu Darvish settles down as a true workhorse (3.40 ERA/220 IP), the Charlies finally get their long-coveted ace.
FILLERS. Johnny Cueto (Cin – SP); Josh Willingham (Min – LF); Alex Cobb (TB – SP); Jeff Samardzija (ChC – SP); Tyler Colvin (Col – 1B,LF,CF,RF); Greg Holland (KC – RP); Ernesto Frieri (LAA – RP); A.J. Griffin (Oak – SP); Collin Cowgill (NYM – LF,CF,RF); Leonys Martin (Tex – CF); Ryan Dempster (Bos – SP); Alex Avila (Det – C); Zack Cozart (Cin – SS)
Josh Willingham’s 35 HR/110 RBI last season shouldn’t surprise us as much since he did go hard for 29 HR/98 RBI in 2011 so the Regression Police can’t smirk at 27 HR/92 RBI. Cowgill, Martin and Cozart are deep sleepers of the ghost variety in that a few things have to break their way for a full-fledged take-off to happen. Cowgill’s stuck in platoon, Martin’s battling for the CF spot and Cozart struggled mightily in the early stretches of spring ball but with a loaded lineup like the Charlies’, filling out the last few batting slots ought to be the least of their worries.
They won the Filler Draft primarily because they got the guys they needed and all these guys just happened to be pitchers. Cueto has improved dramatically each year in the majors and has shown no signs of letting up. Cobb will eat innings by the plateful and won’t strike out enough bats but should provide enough quality starts to justify his roster spot. All signs point to Samardzija going nuclear in the Second City as a criminally underrated mid-level starter (3.70 ERA or better and a plethora of Ks), the kind of guy one wins fake baseball titles with. Dempster sported a career-best 2.25 ERA in 16 starts for the Cubs but got smacked around (5.09 ERA/.276 BAA) in 12 games in Arlington. Split the difference and we’re looking at 3.80 ERA in 180 innings, one of the better starting options to hold the back end.
FARM. Cubbie Anthony Rizzo is the biggest name on the farm, a patient hitter with true 30-HR power. If you’re still wondering how the Charlies are going to replace Granderson’s production in the early goings, wonder no further.
Jedd Gyorko of the Padres will open the year in the majors and is in line for a lot of at-bats, slated for time at both his new 2B post and with Chase Headley injured, at 3B. Colorado’s Nolan Arenado, once a crown jewel among prospect circles, has fallen out of favor in recent years due to inconsistency (he underwhelmed in Double A) and alleged maturity issues. Lukewarm reception aside, his ceiling is still higher than most and he’s presumed to be the Rockies’ long-term answer at the hot corner. And if that isn’t enough, a certain Starling Marte is starting to prove why he’s a worthy running mate to Pirates cornerstone Andrew McCutchen.
Westmorelands/@eargutierrez
KEEPERS
1. (8) Ian Kinsler (Tex – 2B) – 3.2/4.5
2. (17) Jose Reyes (Tor – SS) – 4.5/4.1
3. (32) Jacoby Ellsbury (Bos – CF) – 1.5/2.9
4. (41) Jered Weaver (LAA – SP) – 3.0/4.4
5. (56) Adrian Gonzalez (LAD – 1B,RF) – 3.6/3.9
6. (65) Joe Mauer (Min – C,1B) – 5.0/4.4
7. (80) David Ortiz (Bos – 1B) – 3.0/3.1
8. (89) Jonathan Papelbon (Phi – RP) – 1.4/1.2
9. (104) C.J. Wilson (LAA – SP) – 2.5/3.4
10. (113) Kevin Youkilis (NYY – 1B,3B) – 1.3/3.2
The Consiggy Crew is a menagerie of 1) Red Sox; 2) former Red Sox; and 3) Non-Red Sox man-crushes. What they may lack in flash and hardware, they more than make up for with consistency as the Westies are the only franchise that have made the league playoffs since its inception. It’s easy to shrug off the Reyes-Kinsler tandem right now but we all know that’s a 200 R/60 SB powderkeg waiting to happen. As for Ellsbury, playing for the next big payday should be enough motivation for the 7-year veteran to attack the season like a man possessed (Bloomberg: 94 R/19 HR/69 RBI/28 SB). Joe Mauer may become significantly less of an injury risk this year as the Twins move him off catching duties to let the proud son of the Midwest play an even more expanded role offensively (170 R+RBI, .310).
His recent history and the move to Chavez Ravine probably means that Adrian Gonzalez’s 30+ HR seasons are well behind him as he’ll be better known as “discount Joey Votto” from this point forward. Big Papi can still thump some like the papi of old (Bloomberg: 90 R/28 HR/86 RBI) but right now, it’s an old Papi that’s dealing with sore heels. And Youka (21HR/68 RBI and we’re being kind)? We hate to say this but we probably would’ve kept Ike Davis (floor: 30 HR/85 RBI) as the 10th man instead. Ike aside, Girardi is going to set the Greek God of Walks loose and as long as he’s healthy, Youka will be given every chance to make it happen in the Bronx.
Weaver should have another banner year (likely) even as Wilson hopes to bounce back in a big way from the last one (a little less likely; we’ll take the over on ERA of 4).
FILLERS. Carlos Gomez (Mil – CF); Brandon Morrow (Tor – SP); Joe Nathan (Tex – RP); Adam LaRoche (Was – 1B); Brandon McCarthy (Ari – SP); Erick Aybar (LAA – SS); A.J. Pierzynski (Tex – C); Clay Buchholz (Bos – SP); Ryan Doumit (Min – C,LF,RF); Drew Stubbs (Cle – CF); Wade Miley (Ari – SP); Kyuji Fujikawa (ChC – RP); Ryan Ludwick (Cin – LF)
Biggest need going into the draft? Probably a couple of booming bats. Gomez and LaRoche are secondary hitters with occasional power but taken together, they should answer the bell with authority (40 HR/140 RBI/30 SB). Aybar’s year-long stats never look like much but for stretches during the brutal baseball marathon, he gives a lot of value for a draft afterthought.
If early spring returns are any indication, Clay Buccholz could be in line for monster come-backer (Oliver predicts one run off last year’s 4.56 ERA). The come-backing Brandon McCarthy had some of the best (8W, 6L/3.24 ERA) and worst (injuries, including a projectile i.e. baseball to the head which caused an epidural hematoma, brain contusion and a skull fracture) moments in his last year with the Athletics. He’s recovered quite well and GM Consiggybear should be happy with 3.75 ERA/150 IP.
The trio of Wade Miley (dead arm), Piezynski (age) and Stubbs (new role) may all have a tea party on the Island of Misfit Fantasy Baseball Players by Week 2. They don’t necessarily hurt the club but we aren’t too sure just how much they can help.
FARM. Both Manny Machado and Todd Frazier will start at third for the Orioles and Reds, respectively. While they won’t go porno on the numbers, they’ll both plug some holes at the utility spots.
On top of alienating his catcher and various other personnel in Arizona, Trevor Bauer just didn’t quite have the kind of studly season most thought he had in him last year. Now with the Indians, another stint in Triple A should set him back in groove for a timely mid-season call-up. The biggest prospect of this bunch, as well as the biggest project is Taijuan Walker. The studly right-hander dominated in the lower ranks but barely held his own in Double A. Nonetheless, he is still very young and reeks of overpowering ace potential so passing judgment right now on the immature would be premature. Gausman was a nice Rule 5 score for the Consiggys and if he pans out as the “under-the-radar Dylan Bundy” buddy, they have another winner right here.
Lastly, Addison Russell—the name alone generates warmth in the hearts of dyed-in-the-wool prospect junkies. He’s still got a lot to learn at the plate and needs a bit more polish defensively but all signs point to an all-star talent once he puts it all together and if not, at least a decent regular should he stumble half-way (knock on wood).
Joshiasi/@joshiasi
KEEPERS
1. (7) Robinson Cano (NYY – 2B) – 7.8/6.1
2. (18) Felix Hernandez (Sea – SP) – 6.1/6.1
3. (31) Matt Cain (SF – SP) – 3.8/4.7
4. (42) Mark Teixeira (NYY – 1B) – 2.9/3.2
5. (55) Aroldis Chapman (Cin – RP) – 3.3/2.5
6. (66) Yovani Gallardo (Mil – SP) – 2.7/3.7
7. (79) James Shields (KC – SP) – 4.3/3.1
8. (90) Derek Jeter (NYY – SS) – 3.2/2.0
9. (103) Alfonso Soriano (ChC – LF) – 4.0/1.9
10. (114) Alex Rodriguez (NYY – 3B) – 2.2/2.2
The Yankee-styled version of the consiggys had another fine season as they eeked into the playoffs en fuego, winning 4 of their last 5 match-ups and notching the 6th seed before they wrapped up 3rd place by subduing the rabid Mutts. At this point, it’s safe to say that despite the image “Sex in the City” was trying to sell, single women in NY past 35 are as over-the-hill as Jeter, Tex and A-Rod are and the J-Team will have to lean on Robinson Cano more than ever. Hernandez may take a step back this season as he deals with the mortal limits of declining pitch velocity and cumulative workload but it’s tough (some say foolish) to bet against an arm that has consistently gone for 220 K/230 IP yearly since 2009. Come whatever may, Cain, Chapman, Gallardo and Shields should make for an award-winning ensemble cast to buck the Felix downturn.
They’re finally turning Brooklyn into a Beastie Boys album…wait what?
FILLERS. Mat Latos (Cin – SP); Alex Rios (CWS – RF); Rafael Soriano (Was – RP); Nick Markakis (Bal – RF); Alejandro De Aza (CWS – LF,CF); Brian McCann (Atl – C); A.J. Burnett (Pit – SP); Alexei Ramirez (CWS – SS); Daniel Murphy (Tex – LF, RF); Jeff Keppinger (CWS – 1B, 2B, 3B); Mark Reynolds (Cle – 1B, 3B); Kyle Lohse (FA – SP); Ryan Cook (Oak – RP); Rajai Davis (LF, CF, RF)
They really needed bats and if their farmboy autopicks were valid, they would’ve had a top 3 club, hands down. Regardless, the Y! draft engine nabbed a few good pieces. Mat Latos practically pushes the pitching numbers from “mellow high” to “stoned out of their damn minds.” Chi’s Alejandro De Aza was a sneaky source of runs/SBs last year and this season might even yield a slight uptick (CBS: 91 R/30 SB).
Of the recent free agent haul, Lohse and Reynolds are the meat and potatoes and should fill in a few more gaps. Lohse finally got a deal done with the Brewers and he’ll be one of the better SP3 options out there (3.80 ERA/170 IP). What Lohse lacks in Ks, Reynolds stashes by the boatload and he’ll try to make amends by bringing much-needed thunder (34 HR) to the J-Club.
FARM. While the Big Apple Bonanza is no big fan of farming, they do have kids worth writing home about. Twins OF Byron Buxton is coming along nicely; the future power questions remain but the tools are for real. Mike Zunino a.k.a. Hobo Buster Posey is a former 3rd overall pick who raked in the lower levels and could ultimately be the M’s future starting backstop. George Springer is an older prospect whose hack-away approach may stall his rise up the ranks. Yankee OF Tyler Austin is more smoke and mirrors at this point as he killed it in the low minors; a more realistic assessment will come to fore once we all see whether he sinks or swims in Double A. At the very least, he’s seen as good fielder with better than average speed.
Legacy = Dynasty/@DencioLIX
KEEPERS
1. (4) B.J. Upton (Atl – CF) – 3.3/3.8
2. (21) Elvis Andrus (Tex – SS) – 4.2/3.8
3. (28) Aaron Hill (Ari – 2B) – 6.2/3.6
4. (45) Michael Bourn (Cle – CF) – 6.4/3.7
5. (52) Carl Crawford (LAD – LF) – 0.4/1.7
6. (69) Fernando Rodney (TB – RP) – 2.4/0.5
7. (76) Chase Utley (Phi – 2B) – 3.2/3.5
8. (93) Alcides Escobar (KC – SS) – 2.6/2.2
9. (100) Justin Morneau (Min – 1B) – 0.9/1.3
10. (117) Corey Hart – (Mil – 1B,RF) – 2.9/2.3
After a surprising third-place finish in 2011, the speed-heavy unit nosedived to 11th the following season. Picking up the pieces from the Great Strasburg Debacle proved to be onerous as the old guard slithered off into oblivion. Now with a new GM (welcome to the league Dencio!) and looking for a new direction, this odd caboodle of players will try to make it interesting.
The King or more appropriately, future king of this club is young Ranger Elvis Andrus. He does so much but for any young player with as much talent, he still leaves a lot left to be desired. Punching in 90 runs and stealing 35 bags may not be a given anymore but his numbers shouldn’t hit the skids going forward. Presently, he’s also been dealing with Texas-sized contract issues so…all eyes on the kid.
Bourn should carry the baton for an Indians team that will make waves in the AL Central. Utley and Morneau are both finally healthy after long years in sick bay. No reason to expect them to challenge their prime numbers but 140 games for each one is a gift on its own. Hart is coming off knee surgery but should contribute generously to the Milwaukee campaign once he’s cleared to play (22 HR/68 RBI).
FILLERS. Aramis Ramirez (Mil – 3B); Victor Martinez (Det – C); Doug Fister (Det – SP); Brett Anderson (Oak – SP); Jonathon Niese (NYM – SP); Jason Grilli (Pit – RP); Michael Cuddyer (Col – 1B,RF); Lance Berkman (Tex – 1B); Juan Pierre (Mia – LF); Paul Maholm (Atl – SP); Tyler Clippard (Was – RP); Hisashi Iwakuma (Sea – SP, RP)
In true Musketeer fashion, Aramis Ramirez fought gallantly in 2012 as he blasted 27 bombs into the cheap seats. No question, he’s old and about to head to the glue factory but in a lineup itching for some bang, he’s worth the bucks. In the same token, for someone coming off knee surgery, you gotta be happy with whatever you can get out of the VMart at this point. Cuddy should have a modest turnaround and handily beat his bargain basement draft price (CBS: 78 R/21 HR/80 RBI). Big Cat Berkman is in the twilight of his storied career and this final act will read like one of those movies where a veteran cop wages war against the underworld and goes down swinging.
FARM. The Flores and Triunfel eras never happened (in this version of the universe anyway) but the Dencios’ future is still awfully bright enough to necessitate shades. Rising Mets’ starter Zack Wheeler and the Braves’ resurgent Julio Teheran are two lock and loaded arms who will be ready to contribute once called upon. In the short term, both will be decent spot starters as soon as this season. Aaron Hicks is another toolshed outfielder who could take over as the Twins starting CF out of camp and pitch in as a run-producing/base-nabbing/defensively-sound jackrabbit. Noah Syndergaard, a projectable ace who throws fireballs on the regular, was the prize the Mets picked up off the R.A. Dickey trade. Among the more recent additions, third baseman Matt Davidson (big dude, big-time power) and outfielder Gregory Polanco (speedy + odd mixed bag of skills) represent the Dencios’ best-laid plans for the near and far future.
EAST
Higgs Bossom/@iambubuy
KEEPERS
1. (5) Mike Trout (LAA – LF,CF) – 10/7.4
2. (20) Albert Pujols (LAA – 1B) – 3.9/4.1
3. (29) Andrew McCutchen (Pit – CF) – 7.4/5.3
4. (44) Justin Verlander (Det – SP) – 6.8/5.7
5. (53) Justin Upton (Atl – RF) – 2.5/3.3
6. (68) Ryan Zimmerman (Was – 3B) – 4.5/4.2
7. (77) CC Sabathia (NYY – SP) – 4.8/4.3
8. (92) Gio Gonzalez (Was – SP) – 5.4/4.6
9. (101) Ben Zobrist (TB – 2B,SS,RF) – 5.9/4.7
10. (116) Jose Altuve (Hou – 2B) – 1.8/2.4
There’s no dodging this: the team should’ve won one by now. They almost always have one of the best crews, the pieces fit and now…they have Mike Trout who’s the end result of in-their-primes Matt Holliday and Jose Reyes trapped in a blender. What gives? Luck, primarily. The ebb and flow of a long season seems to get this team more than most (check last year’s schedule for details).
This year may be a bit different as they have a full year of SuperTrout ahead with hope of Upton finally living up to his lofty billing (ESPN: 100 R/28 HR/84 RBI/20 SB). Add in another slam-bang year for McCutchen (Bloomberg: 100 R/26 HR/94 RBI/24 SB) with Zobrist (21 HR/18 SB) and Altuve (90 R/30 SB) holding out the middle infield and you have the league’s most versatile offense. Having Pujols on the club is almost Kris Aquino-excessive at this point. On the pitching side, Verlander, Sabathia and Gonzalez form an enviable triple-threat that will compile K’s and quality starts like it’s nobody’s business.
So yeah…it wouldn’t be the end of the world if they didn’t win the cup but hey, it sure as hell would be damn frustrating.
FILLERS. Eric Hosmer (KC – 1B); Josh Johnson (Tor – SP); Sergio Romo (SF – RP); Josh Rutledge (Col – 2B,SS); Tom Wilhelmsen (Sea – RP); Mike Fiers (Mil – SP); Brandon Belt (SF – 1B); Dustin Ackley (Sea – 1B,2B); Justin Ruggiano (Mia – LF,CF,RF); Casey Janssen (Tor – RP); Garrett Jones (Pit – 1B,RF); Daniel Straily (Oak – SP); Yonder Alonso (SD – 1B)
Post-hype sleeper love has never come thicker for both Hosmer and Belt as they set the bar low enough in previous years that even a modest spike in contributions (say, 22 HR/76 RBI for each) will be considered groundbreaking performances. Ackley was an ex-HB farmboy and just like Hosmer and Belt, he’s a definitely a much better hitter than last year’s numbers suggest with his best work still ahead of him. We’re on the fence on Rutledge but Bloomberg clearly sees him as a shamefully undervalued $10 buy: 86 R/19 HR/72 RBI/.275
Johnson’s pitching career has been mercurial thus far but if there’s anything consistent in the AL East—a lean year notwithstanding—it’s that they dole out hitters by the busload compared to the senior circuit. All things considered, he could still be in line for a rebound, provided that he keeps healthy: 3.60 ERA in 175 IP should be more than enough to hold the fort. Straily should fill in nicely at #5, providing the occasional QS and a tidy string of Ks.
FARM. For one of the most expansive farms in the league, they haven’t had a bumper crop as of late (Trout was acquired via trade) but that should change soon enough. Jarrod Parker isn’t one of the bigger names but he’ll be a decent spot-starter or trading piece for the HB’s if push comes to shove. No one has to sing songs about Billy Hamilton at this point but as long as the Reds keep him on the farm, the countdown continues. Jameson Taillon is the Bossom’s best young arm, a power pitcher with a very good handle of his stuff. It shouldn’t take too long for the Bucs to unleash this flamethrower.
Detroit’s Nick Castellanos has been moved aggressively up the ranks despite coming along slowly in terms of power and plate discipline. He’s got youth on his side but as good as he already is, there’s still quite a lot of ground to cover. Carlos Correa of the Astros holds the most value should he remain at SS but many are already resigned to the fact that he will outgrow the position by the time he’s major-league ready. Still, he’s the HB’s best offensive prospect in the long-term and will be a solid contributor wherever he plays on the diamond.
Jailbait/@jbaggg
KEEPERS
1. (2) David Price (TB – SP) – 5.1/4.8
2. (23) Ian Desmond (Was – SS) – 5.4/3.3
3. (26) Matt Wieters (Bal – C) – 4.1/4.5
4. (47) Austin Jackson (Det – CF) – 5.5/4.1
5. (50) David Freese (StL – 3B) – 4.1/2.3
6. (71) Hunter Pence (SF – RF) – 1.8/1.5
7. (74) Adam Dunn (CWS – 1B,LF) – 1.7/1.3
8. (95) Dexter Fowler (Col – CF) – 2.9/3.9
9. (98) Josh Reddick (Oak – CF,RF) – 4.5/2.0
10. (119) Josh Beckett (LAD – SP)- 2.3/2.3
It’s not a bad team by any stretch of imagination, it’s just not a very good one or, more appropriately—just not yet. A random free agent signing here and another quality guy there and maybe one very good prospect and it really wouldn’t be out character to see them jousting into the top 6—eventually.
David Price was always supposed to be a domineering power pitcher (200K+ in two of the last three years) but what sets him apart and makes him elite is his efficiency while doing so (BB/9 down almost a full point from two years ago). His stuff, the park he plays in and the guys behind him should all help him keep his ERA a shade under 3. After a grand 2011 when nothing much was expected of him, Beckett mailed it in last year. No one knows for sure which Beckett is showing up this year but Chavez Ravine should breathe new life into the old pitcher’s soul (Bloomberg: 3.86 ERA/154 K/173 IP).
Fowler is a former super-prospect still angling for more consistency. At the very least, his wheels should propel him to notch close to 90 runs and a dozen steals even as hitting remains a work in progress. As another former super-prospect, Austin Jackson turned the corner and finally lived up to his billing last season. As long as he keeps the strikeouts down and punches his fair share of runs, he’s a top 30 OF going forward. Reddick was a pleasant slugging surprise for J-Bait last season and in 2013, there should be no reason to take the under on 30 HR/92 RBI just as there is no reason to take the over on .260 BA.
FILLERS. Shane Victorino (Bos – LF,CF); Rickie Weeks (Mil – 2B); Anibal Sanchez (Det – SP); Hiroki Kuroda (NYY – SP); Homer Bailey (Cin – SP); Rafael Betancourt (Col – RP); Chris Perez (Cle – RP); Danny Espinosa (Was – 2B,SS); Coco Crisp (Oak – LF,CF); Brandon League (LAD – RP); Jed Lowrie (Oak – SS); Jesus Montero (Sea – C); Joe Blanton (LAA – SP)
J-Bait hooked up a crazy bargain here as Bloomberg has the Flying Hawaiian zipping in for 90 runs and 30 steals. That’s a tall order for any 32-year-old joining a whole new club in a park that doesn’t play to his strengths but if you can bet on any guy to do it, put your money on Shane Vic. Detroit’s Anibal Sanchez may have been fished out of the bargain bin but the upside for solid #2 numbers is there (CBS: 3.55 ERA/171K in 195 IP). Jesus Montero’s defense will always lag behind his fabled bat. The M’s must believe that his game behind the plate is going to hold up as they plan to start him exclusively at catcher this year.
FARM. They have one of the most promising farms in the mid-term, so expect the Jailbait Gang to follow suit as Most Improved Team in about a year or two.The Cards’ OF Oscar Taveras set Double-A on fire last year as a 19-year-old (83 R/23 HR/94 RBI) and as St. Louis’ most polished hitter, there remains little reason to have him busing around in half-forgotten little towns. Top Cubs prospect SS Javier Baez doesn’t have quite as much sheen as his aggressiveness at the dish tends to get the better of him but he makes up for it with prodigious power (.240 ISO across three levels last season). Even if he outgrows the position and ends up at third base, he’ll be a heavy-handed middle-of-the-order bat going in the early rounds of fantasy in his prime. If Baez’s power can light up a small town for a week, Twins 3B Miguel Sano’s should keep a Midwestern city running for a month (28 HR/100 RBI in A ball). The only rub? Strikeouts coming cheaper by the dozen (26% K last year). There’s still no denying the mammoth potential for the big guy and once he learns to work around pitches, he stands a good chance of straddling the divide between the likes of Prince Fielder and Ryan Howard.
You didn’t hear it here first but this much is true: Dylan Bundy should go King Kong in the majors at some point. Entering the 2011 draft, Pittsburgh’s Gerrit Cole was casually compared to one Stephen Strasburg and while some naysayers insist that’s sacrilegious, with enough time, Cole should come on to his own. Michael Wacha was an interesting late-round pick for J-Bait as the Cardinal fried hitters across three levels (16.5 K/9) in very limited innings last season. St. Louis will try to get him some action coming out of the bullpen later this year but have him marked down as a starter in the long run.
The Mutts/@attyjong
KEEPERS
1. (9) Prince Fielder (Det – 1B) – 4.9/4.1
2. (16) Clayton Kershaw (LAD – SP) – 5.5/6.4
3. (33) Madison Bumgarner (SF – SP) – 3.4/5.0
4. (40) Brett Lawrie (Tor – 3B) – 2.9/4.5
5. (57) Shin-Soo Choo (Cin – RF) – 2.6/3.7
6. (64) Paul Konerko (CWS – 1B) – 2.1/2.4
7. (81) Jake Peavy (CWS – SP) – 4.4/2.5
8. (88) Salvador Perez (KC – C) – 2.6/3.3
9. (105) Andre Ethier (LAD – RF) – 3.4/1.9
10. (112) Mike Minor (Atl – SP) – 1.4/2.3
New year, same old Mutts. They may not look like much but don’t let the underdog status fool you because in this case, the whole is more than the sum of its parts. Fatboy Fielder won’t out-sexy anyone but who cares? Chicks dig the long ball anyway (ESPN: 35 HR/116 RBI). And there’s really no point calling Konerko old and creaky, not while he keeps connecting (Bloomberg: 27 HR/93 RBI). Choo reps the younger set and his power/speed combo should help bolster the Mutts’ cause. Perez may never provide light-tower power but he’ll be a much better overall hitter than most people expect (Bloomberg: 66 R/15 HR/71 RBI).
Bucking supposedly worrisome hip problems, ace Clayton Kershaw will be gunning for his fifth straight season of sub-3.00 ERA in at least 171 innings per year. Should he lose any time because of said hip, Bumgarner, Peavy and Minor should fill in nicely. Peavy is of particular interest as injuries over the recent years have significantly limited his production. However, if last year was any indication, the upside is always there for a stellar season (Bill James: 3.20 ERA/211 IP), one which channels his “Best of San Diego” mixtape.
FILLERS. Chris Davis (Bal – 1B,LF,RF); Torii Hunter (Det – RF); J.J. Putz (Ari – RP); Ben Revere (Phi – LF,CF,RF); Joel Hanrahan (Bos – RP); Everth Cabrera (SD – 2B,SS); Howie Kendrick (LAA – 2B); Ryan Vogelsong (SF – SP); Edwin Jackson (ChC – SP); Kendrys Morales (Sea – 1B); Ricky Nolasco (Mia – SP); Bruce Rondon (Det – RP); Sergio Santos (Tor – RP)
Chris Davis will never be renowned for his discriminating batting eye but it’s all good as long as he keeps knocking in runs and sending a few out of the park (32 HR/88 RBI). Revere should have decent shot of matching his 40 steals from last year as Philly has to rely on baserunning to keep its offense from bogging down. That makes Cabrera and his 35 bags more like extra rice at this point. Morales missed all of 2011 with two ankle surgeries and had a successful tour on the comeback trail last year. Having not much else on hand, the Mariners will keep his big bat in the lineup as much as possible (Bloomberg: 25 HR/90 RBI).
FARM. The Mutts’ kennel is littered with gems but if we talked about all of them, we’d take all day. Nats 3B Anthony Rendon has always been considered one of the organization’s best prospects but he’s just never been able to stay healthy. Consequently, scouts are a bit sketchy about future projections but maintain that he’s been able to hold his own despite missing so much time. After zooming up the system on a jetpack, Seattle’s Danny Hultzen was humbled in Triple-A (5.92 ERA/7.95 BB/9) and will repeat the level. A lot of things can happen to a young buck pitcher at this point but on stuff alone, right-hander Carlos Martinez should fill a role for the Cards. The Red Sox’s Jackie Bradley is easily the Mutts’ most exciting player but depending on whom you ask, he’s either the second coming of Carl Crawford or a mildly overrated defensive outfielder with an average bat. Mets Catcher Travis D’Arnaud gets the nod as the Mutts’ #1 prospect and profiles as monstrous hitter (.975 OPS in Triple-A) with excellent defensive instincts. With no real competition at the position, D’Arnaud will open the year in Triple-A but should be up before summertime.
Snitch Devil 24/@snitchdevil24
KEEPERS
1. (1) Zack Greinke (LAD – SP) – 5.1/5.3
2. (24) Billy Butler (KC – 1B) – 3.2/2.9
3. (25) Yoenis Cespedes (Oak – LF,CF) – 3.1/3.3
4. (48) Brandon Phillips (Cin – 2B) – 4.0/3.5
5. (49) Jordan Zimmermann (Was – SP) – 3.5/2.9
6. (72) Alex Gordon (KC – LF) – 5.9/3.7
7. (73) Asdrubal Cabrera (Cle – SS) – 2.9/3.2
8. (96) Nelson Cruz (Tex – RF) – 1.3/2.5
9. (97) Matt Garza (ChC – SP) – 1.2/2.6
10. (120) Mark Trumbo (LAA – 1B, 3B, LF, RF ) – 2.4/1.8
The Kobettes slummed it bigtime in 2012, finishing last and snapping their four-year run as regular playoff contender that culminated with a runner-up finish in 2011. If anything, it wasn’t for lack of trying as the Snitch still strummed the waiver wire as deftly as Matt Cameron hit the skins. The lack of a true superstar hurts for sure though former 2nd overall MiLB draft pick Cespedes should go h.a.m. this year (Bloomberg: 83 R/25 HR/93 RBI/15 SB) so it’s not like they’re holding a bag of coal.
Gordon has never truly lived up to his mythic status coming out of the prospect ranks but as the Snitches’ main glue guy, the best he can is good enough (20 HR/170 R+ RBI/.275). Butler is another KC Royal that the Kobettes will be leaning on and he should do just fine with another typical .300/25 HR/100 RBI season. While he’ll do most of his damage at DH, Trumbo’s hitting in one of the best lineups in baseball so 72 R/30 HR/86 RBI shouldn’t be too shabby for someone who still K’s a lot and who’s bound to lose a few at-bats once interleague play rolls around.
Donning Dodger blue helps in no small way and elbow issues aside, Zack Greinke should flash a bit of his Cy Young form every so often as Kershaw’s best man. Z-Man played over his head all year last season so you can bet that the Regression Witch has a few things to say about that.
FILLERS. Adrian Beltre (Tex – 3B); Ian Kennedy (Ari – SP); Mariano Rivera (NYY – RP); Huston Street (SD – RP); Nick Swisher (Cle – 1B,RF); Lance Lynn (StL – SP,RP); Brett Gardner (NYY – LF); Ryan Madson (LAA – RP); Andy Pettitte (NYY – SP); Jonathan Lucroy (Mil – C); Jason Vargas (LAA – SP); Carlos Marmol (ChC – RP); Jason Hammel (Bal – SP)
Beltre was the biggest filler pick for the Kobettes and he should reward them graciously by notching his third 30 HR/100 RBI year despite most projections betting on a dip given his age and the departure of former Rangers Josh Hamilton and Mike Napoli. Swisher joins a small-market team with big dreams in Cleveland and will supply a veteran presence and consistency (80 R/22 HR/82 RBI) to its young core. Pettitte and Rivera are obviously on their last legs but even then, they’re terribly useful in limited innings. Lynn is another up-and-comer with badly-hidden sleeper value.
FARM. There’s not a whole lot of data to go on but the Cubs’ Jorge Soler has already been touted as the Next Great Cuban Import and Theo Esptein’s main franchise piece. While gifted with the build of an imposing natural slugger, the 30-million dollar man will have to take his hacks in the lower ranks for the meantime in order to improve his pitch recognition and contact rate.
On the pitching side, Tampa’s Chris Archer’s stuff is awesome but his command and control have been spotty at best. He’ll begin the year in Triple-A but will see time down the line. Southpaw Max Fried has a higher ceiling and is expected to move up the ranks quickly as a potential frontline starter.
and…here’s your reward for reading the whole thing! (or scrolling down really fast)
Baseball Musings 